SeaViews: Insights from the
Gray Havens
2018
Motto: The surest way to get a reputation for being a trouble maker these days is to go about repeating the very phrases that the Founders used in the struggle for independence.
--
Disclaimer: The editor speaks only for himself, and sometimes even he is wrong.
Editorial:
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On the impact of D.C. on the US Economy;
My better 1/2 often tells me that the govt. and in
particular one person (i.e. the President) cannot
single handedly impact the US economy. I wish that
were the case. Unfortunately I'm driven by data, and
the data says differently. This below shows two key
events in the final quarter of 2018 (from
http://finance.yahoo.com ). Investors are not
stupid, the market knows the impact a Dem held House
will have on business growth
Up until Nov. 8 and the first week in December, the economic growth was the highest rate seen since the early 1980's. Still not convinced? Let's see the impact of Trump on hiring in the US - in the last month of 2018, the economy put on over 300,000 jobs ( https://punchingbagpost.com/2019/01/09/december-marks-unexpected-job-growth/ ). What does the labor force trend look like since the last Administration?
"OK, but Serge., the economy is
not just about unemployment and the Dow, under Trump
the interest rate keeps going up and up. Borrowing
is getting more expensive." That is true, of course
the Federal Reserve is responsible for setting the
nation's interest rates. It is interesting to see
what they have done in the past few years (
https://www.npr.org/2018/06/13/619212907/interest-rates-expected-to-go-up-with-more-hikes-to-come
). We see the massive interest drop in 2008 to try
to offset the mortgage and bank crash, then for the
entire Obama Admin. the Fed deemed the economy too
weak to withstand any interest hikes. Not until 2016
did the Fed fear inflation from the heating up Trump
economy, and Trump has seen 8 rate hikes in his two
years in office (the last hike in Dec 2018 is
not on the below plot).
So, as we write this Nancy Pelosi is retaking the seat as Speaker of the House. What is her plan to help grow the us Economy? In her own words, "
If We Win, We're Going to Turn Back the Clock By Repealing the New Law and Massively Increasing Taxes" (from https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2018/04/05/pelosi-you-bet-democrats-are-going-inflict-massive-middle-class-tax-increases-if-we-win-n2467855 )
So, if you think it does not
matter who wins elections, just watch the market -
and your own job prospects.
Guest Editorial:
On accelerating warming of the Earth's Oceans;
November 2018: "Scientists behind a major study on ocean warming this month are acknowledging errors in their calculations and say conclusions are not as certain as first reported. The research, published in the journal Nature, said oceans are warming much faster than previously estimated and are taking up more energy than projected by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "-- https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/11/high-profile-ocean-warming-paper-get-correction
What the !?! How did that get out there???
December 2018: "A new analysis, published Thursday in the journal Science, found that the oceans are heating up 40 percent faster on average than a United Nations panel estimated five years ago"
-- from https://news.slashdot.org/story/19/01/10/1954239/ocean-warming-is-accelerating-faster-than-thought-new-research-finds
There, that's better.
Letters:
none this month
Quote(s) of the month:
"Healthcare.gov may not be fixed by
the end of Nov?"
-- BHO, Nov 20 Press Conference
Fix of the month:
News:
Washington
1.
New York
1. NY City, Oct:
California
- Oct,
Washington
D.C.
1. Dec 2, Wall Street J: